Gujia Home (603816): Diversified Channels, Endogenous Extension, Help Growth

Gujia Home (603816): Diversified Channels, Endogenous Extension, Help Growth
In 2018, net profit attributable to mothers increased by 20 in ten years.3% In 2018, Gujia Household achieved operating income of 91.720,000 yuan, an increase of 37 in ten years.6%; realized net profit attributable to mother 9.89 ppm, an increase of 20 in ten years.3%, slightly lower than our United Nations expectations.In terms of quarters, the company’s 18Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 single-quarter revenue increased by 34% / 27% / 35% / 53% twice, and the net profit attributable to mothers increased by 43% / 7% / 31% / 1 in each quarter.%.We expect the company’s EPS to be 2 in 2019-2021.96, 3.70, 4.57 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating. Endogenous and external extensions have contributed to growth, and export sales have achieved high growth. The layout of large homes has been further improved. In 2018, sofas / beds / supporting products / dining chairs / information technology services / custom furniture / mahogany furniture revenue increased 39% / 28% / 32% year-on-year/ 21% / 91% / 146% / 40% to 51.4/11.3/12.9/3.2/3.3/2.1/1.600 million.During the year, companies such as Rolf Benz, Natuzzi, Banrchi, and Hilburgh Home Furnishing have consolidated their accounts and their combined revenues have been approximately 9.20,000 yuan, the company’s endogenous income increased by about 24% to 82 in ten years.500 million.In terms of different regions, the export national strategy and key customer strategy have had significant effects. In 2018, overseas revenue increased for many years.7% to 35.0 million yuan, the proportion of revenue increased by 4%.5pct to 38%. The downward trend in TDI prices is expected to lead to a continued rise in profits, and the expense ratio has improved during the period, reducing the vertical shift of the overall gross profit margin by 0.9 points to 36.4%, the TDI price of raw materials has begun to fall gradually since the second half of 2018. According to wind data, the average spot price of TDI in the second half of 18 has dropped by 28% compared to 18H1.6 points to 36.4%.We believe that TDI prices will continue to trend downward in the context of TDI capacity expansion. The average price of TDI in 19Q1 replaced about 天津夜网 43% compared to 18H2, and the company’s earnings growth further rebounded.During the period, the rate of expenses fell by 0 every year.8 points to 24.8%, sales / management + R & D / financial expenses change every two times -1.5 / + 1.1 / -0.4pct, the main categories of upward management and R & D expense ratios were reduced due to fair incentive sharing and increased investment in training and R & D.Net operating cash flow decreased by more than 12%, mainly due to increased procurement expenses and investment in research and development. Stores are expanding rapidly, and the channel layout is becoming increasingly diversified. In 2018, independent brand direct-operated stores / distribution stores increased by 19/937 to 207/4015, and other brands’ stores increased by 185 to 1,854.The company strengthened the diversified layout of channels, expanded and strengthened the close relationship with traditional furniture stores, followed closely with the traditional furniture store opening plans, reorganized, structurally inclined to large stores, flagship stores, fusion stores, and has settled in department stores, trying to retail with SuningCloud cooperation, and also gradually cooperate with Evergrande, Vanke and other real estate developers to expand the model sales model, the effects of multiple channel layout gradually appear. Leading software home, maintain “Buy” rating. Considering that the net profit of some mergers and acquisitions companies has increased, it will have a certain impact on the company’s performance. It lowers its profit forecast. Is it expected that 2019?The net profit attributable to mothers will be 12 in 2021.8.15.9, 19.700 million (2019?Original value of 14 in 2020.0, 16.2 ‰), corresponding EPS is 2.96, 3.70, 4.57 yuan.With reference to the PE average of 22 times of the comparable company in 2019, taking into account the company’s industry leadership in various aspects such as the number of channels, product power, and brand power, the company is given 25 in 201927 times PE estimates, the corresponding target price is adjusted to 74.00?79.92 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating. Risk warning: Real estate sales exceed expectations, and channel expansion is less than expected.